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Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Following is a survey by Bloomberg News of economists' expectations for the U.K. economy in the first quarter and whole year of 2004.
The survey covers 10-year bond yields, three-month money market rates, inflation measured by the old and new U.K. targets, Bank of England interest rates, unemployment measured by U.K. and international definitions, and gross domestic product.
The yield on 10-year U.K. government bonds is likely to rise to 5 percent at the end of the first quarter from its 4.82 percent on Dec. 30, according to the median forecast of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
ECONOMIST Yield % ==================================================== Bank of Ireland 5 BNP Paribas 5.3 CEBR 4.8 Commerzbank 5 Commonwealth Bank of Australia 5.05 Credit Agricola 4.9 Credit Suisse 5.2 Deutsche Bank 4.95 Economy.com 5.3 Fortis 5 Gerrard 5 HBOS 4.95 HSBC 5.2 ING 5.05 JP Morgan 4.95 Lehman Brothers 5.16 LloydsTSB 4.8 Morgan Stanley 5.2 National Australia Bank 5 Nomura 5.1 Royal Bank of Scotland 5 Stone & McCarthy 4.8 UBS 5 Williams de Broe 5.1 ==================================================== MEDIAN 5 ----------------------------------------------------
U.K. three-month interest rates, as measured by the London interbank offered rate, are likely to rise to 4.25 percent by the end of the first quarter from 4.04 percent on Dec. 30, according to the median forecast of 23 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
ECONOMIST Forecast % ===================================================== Bank of Ireland 4.25 BNP Paribas 4.3 Commerzbank 4.25 Commonwealth Bank of Australia 4.15 Credit Agricola 4.1 Credit Suisse 4.35 Deutsche Bank 4.2 Economy.com 4.2 Fortis 4.1 Gerrard 4.2 HBOS 4.4 HSBC 4.1 ING 4.4 JP Morgan 4.2 Lehman Brothers 4.2 LloydsTSB 4.2 Morgan Stanley 4.3 National Australia Bank 4.3 Nomura 4.25 Royal Bank of Scotland 4.25 Stone & McCarthy 4.25 UBS 4.25 Williams de Broe 4.2 ==================================================== MEDIAN 4.25 ----------------------------------------------------
The Bank of England's benchmark securities repurchase rate is likely to rise to 4 percent through the first quarter from its current 3.75 percent level, according to the median forecast of 28 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
ECONOMIST BOE Rate Forecast % =================================================== Bank of Ireland 4 BNP Paribas 4 CEBR 3.75 Citigroup 4 Commerzbank 4 Commonwealth Bank of Australia 3.75 Credit Agricola 4 Credit Suisse 4 Daiwa Institute of Research 4 Deutsche Bank 4 Economy.com 4 Fortis 4 Gerrard 4 HBOS 4.25 HSBC 4 ING 4 Investec 4 JP Morgan 4 Lehman Brothers 4 LloydsTSB 4 Morgan Stanley 4 National Australia Bank 4 Nomura 4 Royal Bank of Scotland 4 Stone & McCarthy 4 UBS 4 Westpac 3.75 Williams de Broe 4.25 ==================================================== MEDIAN 4 ----------------------------------------------------
Growth in the retail price index excluding mortgage-interest payments is expected to slow to an average of 2.6 percent in the first quarter, compared with 2.7 percent in the three months through November, the latest period for which data is available, according to the median forecast of 20 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
ECONOMIST Annual RPIX Inflation %
===================================================
Bank of Ireland 2.8
CEBR 2.6
5
Commerzbank 2.3
Commonwealth Bank of Australia 2.5
Credit Agricola 2.2
Economy.com 2.8
Fortis 2.5
Gerrard 2.6
HBOS 2.6
HSBC 2.6
ING 2.4
JP Morgan 2.4
Lehman Brothers 2.7
LloydsTSB 2.4
Morgan Stanley 2.3
Nomura 2.6
Royal Bank of Scotland 2.5
Stone & McCarthy 2.6
UBS 2.6
Williams de Broe 2.5
===================================================
MEDIAN 2.6
---------------------------------------------------
The U.K.'s annual inflation rate, measured by the Consumer Price Index, is expected to accelerate to an average of 1.5 percent in the first quarter, compared with 1.4 percent in the three months through November, according to the median forecast of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
ECONOMIST Annual CPI Inflation in % =================================================== Bank of Ireland 1.6 BNP Paribas 1.5 CEBR 1.92 Citigroup 1.2 Commerzbank 1.2 Commonwealth Bank of Australia 1.9 Credit Agricola 1.2 Daiwa Institute of Research 1.6 Deutsche Bank 1.4 Economy.com 1.3 Fortis 1.2 Gerrard 1.4 HBOS 1.5 HSBC 1.4 ING 1.5 Lehman Brothers 1.4 LloydsTSB 1.6 Morgan Stanley 1.3 National Australia Bank 1.4 Nomura 1.5 Royal Bank of Scotland 1.1 Stone & McCarthy 1.5 UBS 1.6 Williams de Broe 1.6 ================================================= MEDIAN 1.5 -------------------------------------------------
U.K. unemployment, measured by the number of people out of work and claiming jobless benefits, will remain unchanged at an average of 3 percent in the first quarter from its level during the three months ended November, according to the median forecast of 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
ECONOMIST Claimant Count % ================================================= Bank of Ireland 3 BNP Paribas 3 CEBR 3 Citigroup 3 Commerzbank 3 Commonwealth Bank of Australia 3 Credit Agricola 3 Daiwa Institute of Research 2.9 Deutsche Bank 3 Economy.com 3 Fortis 2.9 Gerrard 2.9 HBOS 3 HSBC 3 ING 3.1 Lehman Brothers 3 LloydsTSB 3 National Australia Bank 3 Royal Bank of Scotland 3 Stone & McCarthy 3 UBS 3.1 Williams de Broe 2.9 ================================================= MEDIAN 3 -------------------------------------------------
U.K. unemployment, as measured by International Labor Organization methods, is likely to remain unchanged at an average rate of 5 percent in the first quarter from the three months through October, according to the median forecast of 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
ECONOMIST ILO Unemployment Forecast % =================================================== Bank of Ireland 5 BNP Paribas 5 CEBR 5 Commerzbank 5 Commonwealth Bank of Australia 5 Daiwa Institute of Research 5 Deutsche Bank 5.1 Economy.com 5 Fortis 4.9 Gerrard 4.9 HBOS 5 HSBC 5.1 ING 5.1 JP Morgan 4.9 Lehman Brothers 5 LloydsTSB 5 Morgan Stanley 5 National Australia Bank 5 Royal Bank of Scotland 5 Stone & McCarthy 4.9 UBS 5 Williams de Broe 4.9 ================================================== MEDIAN 5 --------------------------------------------------
Britain's economy is likely to grow 2.8 percent in the first quarter of 2004 from the same period a year earlier, compared with a 2.1 percent annual gain in the third quarter, the latest period for which official figures are available, according to the median forecast of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
ECONOMIST Annual GDP change in % =================================================== Bank of Ireland 2.7 BNP Paribas 2.6 CEBR 3 Citigroup 3.2 Commerzbank 2.7 Commonwealth Bank of Australia 2.9 Credit Agricola 2.9 Credit Suisse 2.9 Daiwa Institute of Research 2.8 Deutsche Bank 3 Economy.com 2.7 Fortis 3.2 Gerrard 2.4 HBOS 2.3 HSBC 2.7 ING 2.7 Investec 3.1 JP Morgan 3.2 Lehman Brothers 3.1 LloydsTSB 2.8 Morgan Stanley 2.8 National Australia Bank 2.4 Royal Bank of Scotland 2.8 Stone & McCarthy 3.3 UBS 2.7 Williams de Broe 2.2 =================================================== MEDIAN 2.8 ----------------------------------------------------
The U.K. economy will expand 0.7 percent in the first quarter from the three months through December, according to the median forecast of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. During the third quarter the U.K. economy grew 0.8 percent.
ECONOMIST Quarterly GDP change in % =================================================== Bank of Ireland 1 BNP Paribas 0.6 CEBR 1.1 Citigroup 1 Commerzbank 0.7 Commonwealth Bank of Australia 0.6 Credit Agricola 0.7 Credit Suisse 0.7 Daiwa Institute of Research 0.7 Deutsche Bank 0.8 Economy.com 0.7 Fortis 0.9 Gerrard 0.6 HBOS 0.8 HSBC 0.6 ING 0.7 Investec 0.8 JP Morgan 0.9 Lehman Brothers 0.7 LloydsTSB 0.7 Morgan Stanley 0.7 National Australia Bank 0.6 Royal Bank of Scotland 0.8 Stone & McCarthy 0.8 UBS 0.6 Williams de Broe 0.5 =================================================== MEDIAN 0.7 ----------------------------------------------------
The Bank of England's benchmark securities repurchase rate is likely to rise to 4.5 percent by the end of 2004, according to the median forecast of 29 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
ECONOMIST BOE Rate Forecast %
===================================================
Bank of Ireland 4.5
BNP Paribas 4.25
CEBR 4
Citigroup 5
Commerzbank 4.25
Commonwealth Bank of Australia 4.5
Credit Agricola 4.75
Credit Suisse 4.5
Daiwa Institute of Research 4.5
Deutsche Bank 4.25
Fortis 5
Gerrard 4.25
HBOS 5
HSBC 4.25
ING 4.25
Investec 4.75
JP Morgan 4.75
Legal & General 4.5
Lehman Brothers 4.25
LloydsTSB 4.5
Merrill Lynch 4.75
Morgan Stanley 4.5
National Australia Bank 4.5
Nomura 4.75
Royal Bank of Scotland 4.75
Stone & McCarthy 5
UBS 4.5
Westpac 4.25
Williams de Broe 4.5
====================================================
MEDIAN 4.5
----------------------------------------------------
Britain's economy is likely to grow 2.8 percent in 2004 from
this year, according to the median forecast of 28 economists
surveyed by Bloomberg News.
ECONOMIST GDP change in % =================================================== Bank of Ireland 3.2 BNP Paribas 2.4 CEBR 2.4 Citigroup 3.2 Commerzbank 2.6 Commonwealth Bank of Australia 2.3 Credit Agricola 2.7 Credit Suisse 2.8 Daiwa Institute of Research 2.9 Deutsche Bank 3 Economy.com 2.8 Fortis 3.2 Gerrard 2.5 HBOS 2.8 HSBC 2.4 ING 2.8 Investec 3.2 Lehman Brothers 2.8 LloydsTSB 2.9 Merrill Lynch 3 Morgan Stanley 2.7 National Australia Bank 2.4 Nomura 3 Royal Bank of Scotland 3 Stone & McCarthy 2.9 UBS 2.5 Westpac 2.5 Williams de Broe 2.3
=================================================== MEDIAN 2.8 ----------------------------------------------------
Britain's economy is likely to grow 2.6 percent in 2005 from
next year, according to the median forecast of 26 economists
surveyed by Bloomberg News.
ECONOMIST GDP change in % =================================================== Bank of Ireland 2.7 BNP Paribas 2.6 CEBR 3 Citigroup 3.2 Commerzbank 2.7 Commonwealth Bank of Australia 2.9 Credit Agricola 2.9 Credit Suisse 2.9 Daiwa Institute of Research 2.8 Deutsche Bank 3 Economy.com 2.7 Fortis 3.2 Gerrard 2.4 HBOS 2.3 HSBC 2.7 ING 2.7 Investec 3.1 JP Morgan 3.2 Lehman Brothers 3.1 LloydsTSB 2.8 Morgan Stanley 2.8 National Australia Bank 2.4 Royal Bank of Scotland 2.8 Stone & McCarthy 3.3 UBS 2.7 Williams de Broe 2.2
=================================================== MEDIAN 2.6 ----------------------------------------------------
Last Updated: December 30, 2003 19:01 EST
