May 11 (Bloomberg) -- Philippine President Gloria Arroyo is headed for victory over actor Fernando Poe Jr., a national post- election survey shows, giving her a full six-year term to tackle an economy hobbled by budget deficits and debt.

Arroyo had 40.8 percent of the vote and Poe 32.3 percent, according to Social Weather Station, one of the country's two biggest polling companies. The survey, which covered 4,627 registered voters, had a 1.5 percent margin of error.

``She won her point on experience. The country shouldn't entrust itself to an inexperienced person,'' said Jose Abueva, former president of University of the Philippines. ``Poe imploded in the course of the campaign, proved he wasn't really prepared and competent to be president. He couldn't hack it and doesn't have the savvy, knowledge, experience and skills.''

Arroyo, 57, drew the support of investors and businessmen in a campaign that focused on her experience from 18 years of government service. Poe, 64, appealed more to the one-third of Filipinos who live in poverty as he promised them jobs and homes.

Poe's supporters called for evening rally amid allegations of vote fraud as the movie star fell behind Arroyo in surveys. Arroyo called for calm as 4,000 people carrying banners and chanting for Poe gathered in the financial district of Makati, where 100 police officers stood by.

Arroyo had 22,304 votes compared with Poe's 14,886, according to the National Citizens Movement for Free Elections, a private group authorized by the government to do a quick count. The votes, tallied as of 4 p.m., were from 439 precincts out of 216,382 polling centers. The election commission hasn't released any official figures, which may take about a week as tallies are done manually in a nation of more than 7,100 islands.

`Track Record'

``Arroyo has the track record,'' said Edwin Chungunco, a fund manager at Citigroup Asset Management in Singapore. ``We don't know what policies Poe will implement.''

Poe's inexperience and his refusal to explain his economic policies during his campaign sent financial markets tumbling on concern he may win. The peso fell to a record against the dollar after Poe said on March 9 that creditors should be asked to reorganize the government's debt, which Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's rate below investment grade.

The person who takes the presidential oath on June 30 has to contend with a nation embroiled in political violence and economic problems that have made it one of the poorest in Asia. More than 100 people were killed in election-related violence in the past three months.

The International Monetary Fund forecasts the Philippine economy will expand 4.5 percent this year, the slowest in Southeast Asia. One in three of the nation's 83 million people lives on less than 58 U.S. cents a day.

The jobless rate rose in January to 11 percent, the highest of 11 Asia-Pacific economies tracked by Bloomberg. The budget deficit will widen to 198 billion pesos ($3.5 billion) this year, the government estimates.

Chronic Budget Deficits

The Philippines has run deficits since 1998 as tax collection misses targets, forcing the government to borrow at home and abroad. A third of public spending goes to interest payments on 3.4 trillion pesos of government debt, which rose by a fifth last year.

The government has had to borrow to keep unprofitable state companies such as National Power Corp. afloat. The government gets 49 percent of its borrowings from overseas creditors including the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, according to the Bureau of the Treasury.

Arroyo, who has served in government since 1986, vowed to balance the budget by 2009, create 1 million jobs a year and triple loans to small-business owners if she wins a six-year term. The president, who leads the Lakas-CMD party, took office in 2001 after former President Joseph Estrada, a friend of Poe's, was ousted in a peaceful coup amid a bribery scandal.

Poe, known as ``Da King'' for his more than 200 movies that often portray him as a taciturn hero who defends the poor, was backed by Estrada, who questioned the legitimacy of Arroyo's administration.

The Arroyo-Poe survey was the second time Social Weather conducted an exit poll for a presidential election. It predicted Estrada's victory in the 1998 election.

To contact the reporter on this story: Francisco Alcuaz Jr. in Manila falcuaz@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: May 11, 2004 07:51 EDT