Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Argentina's inflation rate probably jumped to a one-year high in January as a boom in tourism during the country's summer vacation season prompted hotels and railroad operators to raise prices, a Bloomberg News survey of economists showed ahead of a government report today.

Consumer prices rose 0.9 percent in the month, almost five times December's 0.2 percent increase, according to the median forecast of 10 economists surveyed. The jump in prices likely foretells an acceleration in inflation this year as a recovery in the South American economy boosts consumer spending: The central bank forecasts a 2004 inflation rate of as high as 6 percent, up from 3.7 percent in 2003.

Jorge Galarce, manager at tourist agency Pacific Tours in Buenos Aires, estimates hotels rose their prices about 20 percent throughout the country last month. ``It's been more than 10 years since we've seen almost 100 percent occupancy at hotels as we had last month,'' he said.

Inflation may also accelerate this year -- crimping consumers' purchasing power just as they begin to boost spending after the country's worst recession on record -- as the government lifts a freeze on utility rates it has had in place for the past two years. The government hasn't allowed electricity, water and other utilities to raise prices since it defaulted on $95 billion of debt and devalued its currency in late 2001 and early 2002.

Mar de Plata, Pinamar

That 70 percent tumble in the peso in 2002 has made traveling abroad too expensive for most Argentines, prompting them to take their summer vacations at beach resorts in the country such as Mar de Plata and Pinamar.

Railroad operator Ferrobaires Gobierno de la Provincia de Buenos Aires boosted the price of a ticket for the approximately 200-mile trip south from Buenos Aires to Mar de Plata to 29 pesos ($9.90) from 26 pesos.

``After the currency devaluation, most Argentines have had to spend their holidays in Argentina, leaving their money in the country,'' said Marco Palacios, president of the Argentine Chamber of Tourism. ``Domestic tourism is at an all-time high.''

Retailers increased their sales in January by an average of 13.1 percent, led by a surge in purchases in tourist centers, according to Argentina's retail chamber of commerce.

The government is slated to release the January consumer price report at 2 p.m. New York time.

In Neighboring Chile, consumer prices are falling, a government report showed today. Prices dropped 0.2 percent in January, the fourth straight monthly decline, pushing the 12- month inflation rate to 0.8 percent, the lowest since 1945. A 22 percent rally in Chile's peso last year has fueled the drop in the inflation rate by cutting the cost of imports.

To contact the reporter on this story: Eliana Raszewski at (54) eraszewski@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: February 4, 2004 09:31 EST