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Crude Oil, Gas Fall From Records as Storm May Miss Gulf Fields

By Mark Shenk

Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil and natural gas fell from records in New York on forecasts that Tropical Storm Katrina will probably miss oil and gas fields in the Gulf of Mexico.

``Prices rose on concern that the storm would veer to the west, but that doesn't look likely,'' said Joe Allman, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets in Houston. ``It doesn't look like Katrina will hit the main oil and gas producing regions in the Gulf.''

Katrina's maximum sustained winds were near 60 miles (97 kilometers) per hour and should hit the southeastern Florida coast tonight or tomorrow morning, the Miami-based National Hurricane Center said at 11 a.m. local time. The storm is then expected to move toward the state's panhandle, missing most oil and gas fields, which lie off the coasts of Louisiana and Texas.

Crude oil for October delivery fell 42 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $66.90 a barrel at 11:32 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures began trading in 1983. Prices are up 54 percent from a year ago.

The fall in prices accelerated after a report showed that U.S. natural-gas supplies jumped in the week ended Aug. 19. Stockpiles rose by 60 billion cubic feet to 2.575 trillion cubic feet, the Energy Department said in a report released at 10:30 a.m. Analysts expected an increase of 58 billion cubic feet, according to the median of 21 estimates in a Bloomberg survey.

Natural gas for September delivery fell 54.4 cents, or 5.5 percent, to $9.44 per million British thermal units in New York. Futures closed at $9.984 yesterday, the highest since trading began in 1990. Prices are up 81 percent from a year ago.

Likely Hurricane

Katrina's winds are forecast to reach hurricane strength, exceeding 73 mph, late today or early tomorrow, the Miami-based center said. Florida has no refineries and produced an average 8,000 barrels a crude-oil a day last year, government figures show. The U.S. produced an average 5.4 million barrels a day of crude oil in 2004.

Platforms in the Gulf of Mexico account for 24 percent of U.S. gas production and 30 percent of oil output. States along the Gulf receive more than half of U.S. oil imports and are home to 50 percent of the nation's refining capacity. Texas and Louisiana produced 1.2 million barrels a day last year, accounting for 24 percent of U.S. output last year.

Last year New York oil prices jumped 22 percent in the month after Hurricane Ivan passed through the Gulf, pulling some offshore facilities from their moorings and damaging pipelines. The Atlantic hurricane season lasts from June through November.

Gasoline for September delivery rose 1.12 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $1.937 a gallon in New York. Futures reached a record $2.029 on Aug. 17. Heating oil for September delivery fell 1.64 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $1.849 a gallon.

Winners and Losers

Business confidence in Germany fell for the first month in three in August as record oil prices left consumers with less money to spend and increased companies' costs. The Munich-based Ifo institute's business confidence index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, declined to 94.6 from 95 in July, led by greater pessimism among retailers.

Germany, Europe's largest economy, was the world's third- biggest oil importer in 2003, according to the U.S. Department of Energy.

The economy in many oil exporters has boomed along with rising prices. The benchmark stock index in Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude-oil exporter, rose to a record today after oil prices reached $68 a barrel.

In London, the October Brent crude-oil futures contract declined 39 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $65.62 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange. Brent touched $66.85 a barrel on Aug. 15, the highest for a contract closest to expiration since trading began in 1988.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: August 25, 2005 11:53 EDT

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