Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil futures jumped to a record $48.70 a barrel in New York on concern Iraqi exports may drop further because of clashes in southern Iraq between U.S. troops and fighters loyal to Shiite Muslim cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.

Disruptions to Iraqi pipeline shipments have cut exports to about 1 million barrels a day from 1.8 million in April. Crude oil futures in New York have set a record all but one day since July 30 amid concern that rising demand has used up all excess production, leaving no supply cushion.

``When you're at capacity, a million barrels starts to become very important,'' said Boone Pickens, the Texas oil investor who predicted in May that oil prices would go to $50. ``If I had to take a position up or down, I'd say up,'' he said in a telephone interview from Dallas.

Crude oil for September delivery rose $1.43, or 3 percent, to close at $48.70 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, a record closing price. Prices reached $48.80 a barrel, the highest intraday price since oil began trading in New York in 1983. Prices were up 59 percent from a year earlier.

The September contract expires tomorrow. The more-active October futures contract rose $1.29, or 2.8 percent, to close at $47.64 a barrel.

``The oil price is firmly in the danger zone,'' Stephen Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley in New York, wrote in a note to clients. Should prices reach $50 and stay there for several months, this would be ``in the ballpark with full-blown oil shocks of the past'' that have caused recessions, he said.

In London, the October Brent crude-oil futures contract rose $1.30, or 3 percent, to $44.33 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange, the highest closing price since futures began trading in 1988. Prices reached $44.35 a barrel during the session, an intraday record.

`Kill Demand'

Pickens, who oversees more than $1 billion in energy investments at BP Capital, predicted $50 oil in an interview in May when prices were around $40 a barrel.

While Pickens declined to boost his forecast above $50 today, he said his fund is still betting on an increase. He said he is waiting to see when high prices start to cut demand. ``It looks to me like the price has got to move up unless you start to kill demand.''

The International Energy Agency, adviser to 26 industrialized nations, raised its projections of 2004 oil demand to 82.2 million barrels a day earlier this month. Meeting that demand takes almost all of the world's production, Pickens said.

`Slowed the Recovery'

``Current energy prices have slowed the recovery down some,'' said U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow. ``They act like a tax and take money out of people's pockets and out of businesses' pockets,'' Snow said. ``We are running into some headwinds but the economy is still growing and expanding and creating jobs.''

The average cost of oil used by U.S. refiners was $35.24 a barrel in 1981, according to the Energy Department. That's almost $73 in 2004 dollars. In 1974, a barrel of oil averaged $9.07, which would be about $34.50 today. Prices surged that year after the Arab oil embargo that followed the Arab-Israeli war of 1973.

An al-Sadr aide said southern Iraqi residents have set several oil pipelines on fire and threatened to torch oil wells across Iraq, Agence France-Presse reported, citing an interview on Al-Jazeera television.

``After the declarations of the so-called Iraqi minister of state, in the name of his unjust government, residents of southern Iraq, mainly in Basra and Amarah, have bombed several pipelines and are threatening to torch all the oil wells in the south,'' said Sheikh Aws al-Khafagi, head of al-Sadr's office in the southern city of Nasiriyah, according to AFP.

Iraq is exporting about 1 million barrels of oil a day since closing one of the two pipelines that connect its southern fields to its Persian Gulf terminals, said the head of the country's State Oil and Marketing Organization, SOMO.

One Pipeline

``We are pumping through only one pipeline,'' Dhia Al-Bakka, Iraq's OPEC governor and director-general of SOMO, said in an interview in Vienna while attending an OPEC board of governors meeting this week.

Al-Bakka said yesterday exports wouldn't recover until security improves. He wouldn't comment on exports from the north.

``Rising prices are being supported by the reduction in Iraqi exports and the threat that al-Sadr's aide made to torch the country's oil infrastructure,'' said Jim Steel, director of commodity research at Refco Inc. in New York. ``The upward momentum in prices shows no sign of lessening.''

Iraqi Attacks

Prices in New York have surged 69 percent since coalition soldiers helped Iraqis topple Saddam Hussein's statue in Baghdad on April 9, 2003. The continued presence of about 140,000 U.S. military personnel in the nation that holds the world's third- largest oil reserves has failed to stop pipeline attacks.

``Everyone is much more concerned about supply disruptions than they were before the U.S. invasion'' of Iraq, said Simon Wardell, an analyst with the World Market Research Centre in London. ``The risk premium is much more significant because we don't really have much spare capacity.''

OAO Yukos Oil Co., Russia's biggest oil exporter, has said it may be bankrupted by a $3.4 billion tax bill. The company has struggled to fund operations after the Russian government froze accounts that handle about 50 percent of the company's monthly $1.8 billion in cash flow. Yukos pumps about 1.6 million barrels of oil a day, about as much oil as OPEC member Libya.

Prices rose yesterday after the Energy Department said that U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell by 1.3 million barrels to 293 million in the week ended Friday. The median of forecasts by 14 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg before the report was for a decline of 1.88 million barrels.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: August 19, 2004 15:52 EDT